A mere 60 days prior when the young forward stood on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while his coach admonished him over not reading a pass in behind. Back then, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether his displays were an indicator or the source for Villa's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, however, the manager's outburst was entirely far more favourable. As Rogers drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician tore off his coat, opened his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club marched on to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning their opening six matches, are somehow just three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Serious Title Contenders?
This is a rather hard proposition to resolve. The historical record, the perceived status of Villa, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they've rarely been entirely convincing during this run, despite the fact the victories have piled up.
Per the data, twice all season has the side registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a club who have strung together a ten-match winning streak, they appear curiously susceptible – but currently the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy looks like to exchange chances with the opposition before hoping their talisman to rescue them with some clinical strikes. This occurred against Leeds, it occurred in London, and again against the Red Devils.
The initial strike came from a brilliant finish, bent precisely inside the post from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opponents had more efforts and more efforts on goal. The team has won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge they will encounter as the season progresses. The forward, almost certainly, cannot keep on blasting the ball into the net's top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Could it be an alternative path whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs might still rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins might resume adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the force he showed in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs are set to regain fitness, bolstering a periodically leaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the potential of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, this was unforeseen. Few believed Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt back in October, nobody thought the young forward as the year closed would be leading a title charge while establishing himself as an essential Three Lions star.
The current run must be cherished for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As the hero faced the home supporters when the game ended conducting the cheers, he seemed to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These spells are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
